COMAC, or commercial aircraft corporation of China, is an aircraft manufacture that is trying to compete with Boeing and Airbus. On November 2, 2015, they produced their first large airliner called the C919 that holds approximately 168 passengers. It is very difficult to say that the C919 will never receive FAA certification; however, I don't think that it will happen anytime soon. First, the FAA is never quick about anything not involving emergencies. There is always extensive paperwork and research with all of their procedures and the fact that it is coming from a country that has no previous FAA aircraft makes it even more work. Secondly, China has a very poor reputation with the quality of their manufacturing products. Not only will the FAA keep that in mind, but I believe that there will be many different individuals that are watching over the FAA's shoulders and trying to influence them not to grant COMAC with certification. This being said, I believe that the public perception will have a large influence.
The public perception of Chinese manufacturing is not good. If the C919 were to get FAA certification, I don't believe that it would affect the U.S. carriers at all for the first 10 years or so. Yes, the COMAC aircraft will probably be cheaper than Boeing and Airbus; however, I think the carriers will wait about 10 years to see their safety and maintenance records before switching manufactures to cut costs. On the passengers side, I believe that the general public will be against the Chinese aircraft in the media and in their daily conversations. Most flying passengers don't actually know much about aircraft and are too focused with just getting on the plane and taking their seats, so when it comes time to actually flying I don't think they will really even notice what type of plane they are on.
Not only will COMAC have issues in the future trying to market to other countries, they are currently having their own personal issues. The C919 is behind production schedule and it is also heavier than expected. With the increased weight, the efficiency has gone down, which means that it will cost more to fly per hour than its competitors (Cendrowski, 2016). Luckily their delayed production is not affecting many companies because COMAC is owned by the Chinese government. Since China owns COMAC, the C919 will be flown by all Chinese carriers. The C919 is not the only COMAC plane that is delayed with production. COMAC is also working on producing a smaller jet, smilier to a CRJ, that is called the ARJ-21. The ARJ-21 is a 90 passenger jet that made its' first flight commercial flight on June 28, 2016 (Riva, 2016).
Even if the C919 were to receive FAA certification, I don't think that other companies would try to enter the market. Mainly due to the huge financial costs behind aircraft manufacturing. Both Boeing and Airbus are over budget on almost every airplane that they produce, so most companies will not be able to afford that. Another reason that other companies won't try to compete is the strict regulations and certifications that are necessary. The FAA is very strict and not only will complying with certifications cost new companies a lot financially, it will also cost them more time then they will be able to handle. In my opinion, I don't think that the C919 will end up receiving FAA certification and that will show other potential companies how difficult it is to join the market and will prevent them from trying to do so.
COMAC is not a threat to Boeing or Airbus. Neither of the companies have really responded to the new manufacturer because they have been the manufacturers for the last few decades. They already have enough clients and are FAA certified. They don't have time to worry about potential competitors because they are already behind their schedules. Both Boeing and Airbus are working on new airliners and when asked about COMAC, they basically turned the question into an opportunity to advertise their new products.
References:
Cendrowski, S. (2016, February 16). China's Answer to Boeing Loses Shine. Fortune. Retrieved
fromhttp://fortune.com/2016/02/16/china-comac-c919-delay-delivery/
Riva, A. (2016, June 28). China Just Flew its First Passenger Jet: and its a Clunker. Vine News.
Retrieved from https://news.vice.com/article/china-just-flew-its-first-passenger-jetand-its-a-
clunker
I think you nailed the “public perception” topic perfectly. I could easily see the media being against the C919; however, the average passenger doesn’t really know, or care, what type of plane they’re on so long as they arrive at their destination safety. I also agree that airliners would wait to see the C919’s safety record before purchasing what the media may deem “a cheap Chinese rip-off”.
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